Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.