Daily Murders in the nation Fall 37% During President Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The average count of per-day murders each month in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh official figures. But, security specialists have advised that murder numbers might not indicate enhanced national stability.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September of last year. This information was shared by the chief of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen over these past months is very important,” the President said, explaining that the previous month the smallest amount of murders were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Violent organized crime rivalries, combined with the administration's heavily militarised efforts to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent years. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x higher than the US. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her national security strategy for an apparently more pronounced reduction in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the President stated: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central elements of the President's safety plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Increased cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that using murder numbers to assess the situation of peace was problematic. This is notably true given the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer useful for gauging the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to properly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was similarly an issue because it could hide days when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can highlight the success of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains beset by high violence, with several states in the midst of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a notable murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to show their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to build a story of security. Politically it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” Vargas concluded.